Copenhagen Accord

The 193-nation Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change (Dec.7-18) failed to come up with what the world had long expected, a legally binding Treaty, or even a Declaration with promise of Kyoto Protocol-II being drawn up in 2010. But its near collapse was averted with a five-nation "Copenhagen Accord" brokered by President Barack Obama - his probable first victory in the international arena - taking along China, the largest polluter, India, Brazil and South Africa. This has been acclaimed as a great breakthrough by these countries which held fast to their rigid positions and struck a last-minute compromise, which will be severely tested in the coming years. Both China and India joined the chorus of welcome.

The Accord, which was not endorsed by the most acrimonious UN Conference of recent times, has been promoted as laying the foundation for a binding agreement in the coming years. It does not refer to the UN proposal for a new Treaty under its Framework Convention in 2010. Overall, though both India and China have welcomed the Accord as significant and positive, the 12-day Copenhagen Conference merely "took note" of the development with a sense of betrayal of the interests of scores of countries under threat and most vulnerable to climate change.

The Obama Administration did come up with some new ideas to facilitate an understanding, other than any binding commitments, such as in the matter of financing and importantly found ways breaking the logjam over China’s objections to international verification as infringement of sovereignty. The Accord did not record any targets beyond the need to keep increase in global temperature below 2 degrees as dictated by science. While calling for cooperation in achieving peaking of global and national emissions "as soon as possible", it recognised that the time-frame for peaking would be longer in developing countries where social and economic development and poverty eradication are over-arching priorities.

The Accord has acknowledged the need for short-term financing of the order of 30 billion over the three years 2010-12 as well as for an international effort to mobilise 100 billion dollars by 2020. The financing with strings attached would be both for mitigation and adaptation and forestry in the context of assessments of national actions at both domestic and international levels.

The Accord omitted the earlier demand that all countries should accept 2050 as peaking year as developing countries did not have any firm commitments from the richer countries on their medium and mid-century targets. The big question now is how far the Obama Administration goes on the path laid out by the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012 whereas the Accord puts off an assessment of voluntary mitigation actions in 2015.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, in a qualified welcome, noted "finally there ia a deal". The ‘Copenhagen Accord’ may not be everything everyone had hoped for, "but this decision...is an important beginning.". He hoped the Accord would pave the way for a binding treaty as had been mooted till now at the next conference in Mexico in 2010. But the Accord does not set any date for a new Treaty and it remains an open question whether the Obama Administration would stand by the Kyoto Protocol, which the Bush regime had rejected. President Obama, who had talked of a "planet in peril" in his campaign for the Presidency, seized a role for American leadership in this 21st century challenge.

Significantly, the Accord talks of assessment of implementation of the Copenhagen Accord to be completed by 2015 including consideration of strengthening the long-term goal taking into matters presented by the science including in relation to temperature rises of 1.5 degrees Celsius. As of now, the targets on emission cuts by 2020 set at the country level are: European Union 20 per cent over 1990 levels, Japan 25 per cent and USA 3 to 4 per cent. (The US legislation pending in the Senate provides for 17 per cent cut over 2005 levels by 2020,42 per cent by 2030and 80 per cent by 2050). China has said it would reduce energy consumption per unit of output by 40-45 per cent by 2020 while India has indicated around 20 per cent by then.

US officials said the Accord which involves other leading economies would help in getting the climate legislation through Congress early in 2010.For President Obama, the Accord was "meaningful and unprecedented" as for the first time all major economies had come together to "accept their responsibility" to take action to confront the threat of climate change. It recognised the necessity of listing national actions and commitments in a "transparent way". USA had stuck to "transparency, mitigation and financing" as the essential elements for any deal and the President felt "the consensus will serve as foundation for global action to combat climate change for years to come".

China says the Accord recognises "common but differentiated responsibilities" set by the UN Framework Convention and the Bali Action Plan, binding cuts by developed countries and "voluntary mitigation actions" by developing countries. It lauds the "constructive" role of its Premier Wen Jiabao, notwithstanding the tensions generated and US insistence on "transparency" on which the other countries had to yield grudgingly.

The Accord omitted the earlier demand that all countries should accept 2050 as peaking year as developing countries did not have any firm commitments from the richer countries on their medium and mid-century targets. The big question now is how far the Obama Administration goes on the path laid out by the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012 whereas the Accord puts off an assessment of voluntary mitigation actions in 2015.

Environmentalists are angered by the meagre outcome of the Copenhagen Conference which concluded with what looks like a messy road map of future. It marked a dismal end to years of work so far under the UN Framework Convention with the expectation of Copenhagen providing the foundation for a legally binding Treaty being concluded in 2010. The Conference did not yield a credible action programme with operational targets and brings the curtain down on the historic responsibilities of industrial countries for the global warming. Developing countries are now brought into sharing responsibilities and would be required to go much farther than they are capable of at present in the face of a common danger for humanity.